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Sheetal P. Silal

Sheetal Prakash Silal

Dr Sheetal Prakash Silal

Dept. of Statistical Sciences
Mathematical Modelling; Infectious diseases
TitleDr
NameSheetal Prakash Silal
Work Telephone021 650 5321
Researcher IdO-5991-2015
InstitutionUniversity of Cape Town
FacultyFaculty of Science
DepartmentDept. of Statistical Sciences

Qualifications

  • PhD ; Mathematical sciences; University of Cape Town; 2014; Thesis Title: A Mathematical modelling approach for the elimination of malaria in Mpumalanga, South Africa
  • MSc (Operations Research in Development); Mathematical sciences; University of Cape Town; 2009; Thesis Title: A simulation model of antimalarial drug resistance
  • B.Bus.Sci (Actuarial Science); Actuarial Sciences; University of Cape Town; 2006

Employment Profile

  • University of Cape Town; Lecturer; Jan 2010
  • University of Cape Town; Entry level lecturer; Jan 2009 - Dec 2009
  • University of Cape Town; Junior Research Fellow; Dec 2007 - Jan 2009

Institutional Leadership

  • University of Cape Town; Science Faculty Marketing Committee; Level: Faculty; Role: ; 2011->
  • University of Cape Town; Course Convener; Level: Department; Role: ; 2011->
  • University of Cape Town; Science Faculty Student Advisors; Level: Faculty; Role: ; 2014
  • University of Cape Town; Website ; Level: Department; Role: Domain Administrator; 2015->
  • University of Cape Town; Marketing Portfolio; Level: Department; Role: ; 2011->

Formal Courses

  • University of Cape Town; STA1000F/S; "Statistics 1000"; 2010-1013
  • University of Cape Town; STA1006S; "Statistics for Mathematical Disciplines"; 2014
  • University of Cape Town; STA2004F; "Statistical Theory and Inference"; 2012
  • University of Cape Town; STA3036S; "Operational Research Techniques"; 2010->
  • University of Cape Town; STA3041F; "Markov Processes and Time Series"; 2010
  • University of Cape Town; STA3043S; "Decision Theory and Generalised Linear Models"; 2015->
  • University of Cape Town; STA4007W; "Operations Research A & B"; 2011->
  • University of Cape Town; STA5003W; "Simulation and Optimisation; Infectious Disease Modelling"; 2015->
  • University of Cape Town; STA5055Z; "Biostatistics II"; 2010-2014
  • University of Cape Town; STA5056Z; "Biostatistics III"; 2014

Course Convenorship

  • University of Cape Town; STA3036S; "Operational Research Techniques"; 2011->

Research Summary

Research

My primary area of research is mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. This is the application of mathematical modelling and computer simulation to predict the dynamics and control of infectious diseases to evaluate, among other things, the potential impact of control programmes in reducing morbidity and mortality. 

My research focuses on using mathematics to model the elimination of malaria in South Africa, Southern Africa and the Asia Pacific region.

Current collaborations include:

Financing malaria elimination in the Asia-Pacific Region

In order to achieve the goal of a malaria-free Asia Pacific, financial resources will need to be increased and sustained over the medium to long-term. Without intensive support and evidence to understand and articulate the cost requirements to help mobilize adequate and sustained resources, and/or reprogram existing funds to be spent as efficiently as possible, these countries will be unable to reach their elimination goals. To this end the UCSF Global Health Group’s Malaria Elimination Initiative has a comprehensive program of work “To increase and expand the amount of sustainable financing in support of achieving a malaria-free Asia Pacific by 2030”. This involves the development of a mathematical model to project the rates of decline to elimination by 2030 and determine the costs for and maintaining malaria elimination in the Asia Pacific region. 

Research Field

DomainHealth and Medical Sciences
Primary Research FieldsMathematical sciences; Operations Research
Secondary Research FieldsMathematical Modelling; Infectious diseases
SpecialisationsMalaria; Simulation

Professional Membership

  • Tropical Diseases Modelling Network (TDModNet); 2011->
  • American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene; 2015->
  • Operations Research Society of South Africa; 2014->
  • South African Statistical Association; 2015->

Conference Attendance

  • 64th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene ; Philadelphia, USA; 2015
  • 44th Operations Research Society of South Africa Annual Conference; Johannesburg, South Africa; 2015
  • Malaria Research Meeting; Durban, South Africa; 2015
  • 6th Operational Research Practice in Africa Conference; Algiers, Algeria; 2015
  • 63rd Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene ; New Orleans, USA; 2014
  • 62nd Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene ; Washington DC, USA; 2013
  • Challenges in Malaria Research; Basel, Switzerland; 2012
  • Innovations in Global Health Research – Global social justice and the social determinants of health: Setting the Course for the Future; Ottawa, Canada; 2012
  • Oxford Tropical Network Meeting; Vientiane, Laos PDR; 2011
  • Public Health Association of South Africa Conference; Johannesburg, South Africa; 2011
  • 57th Session of the International Statistical Institute; Durban, South Africa; 2009

Invitations to Conferences

  • Hitting a moving target: Analysing epidemiology using Operational Research; Invited as: Plenary Speaker; 20-22 April 2015

Silal, S. P., Little, F., Barnes, K. I., & White, L. J. (2015). Hitting a moving target: a model for malaria elimination in the presence of population movement. PLoS One, 10(12). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0144990. Full text: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144990

Silal, S. P., Little, F., Barnes, K. I., & White, L. J. (2015). Predicting the impact of border control on malaria transmission: a simulated focal screen and treat campaign. Malaria Journal, 14(1), 268-268. doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0776-2. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-015-0776-2

Silal, S. P., Little, F., Barnes, K. I., & White, L. J. (2015). Sensitivity to model structure: a comparison of compartmental models in epidemiology. Health Systems, 2(August 2014), 0-0. doi:10.1057/hs.2015.2. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/hs.2015.2

Slater, H. C., Ross, A., Ouedraogo, A. L., White, L. J., Nguon, C., Walker, P. G., Ngor, P., Aguas, R., Silal, S. P., Dondorp, A. M., La Barre, P., Burton, R., Sauerwein, R. W., Drakeley, C., Smith, T. A., Bousema, T., & Ghani, A. C. (2015). Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies. Nature, 528(7580), S94-S101. Full text: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v528/n7580_supp_custom/full/nature16040.html

Silal, S. P., Little, F., Barnes, K. I., & White, L. J. (2014). Towards malaria elimination in Mpumalanga, South Africa: a population-level mathematical modelling approach. Malaria Journal, 13(1), 0-0. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-297. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-13-297

Silal, S. P., Penn-Kekana, L., Bärnighausen, T., & Schneider, H. (2014). Local level inequalities in the use of hospital-based maternal delivery in rural South Africa. Globalization and Health, 10(1), -. doi:10.1186/s12992-014-0060-1. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12992-014-0060-1

Cleary, S., Birch, S., Chimbindi, N., Silal, S. P., & McIntyre, D. E. (2013). Investigating the affordability of key health services in South Africa. Social science & medicine (1982), 80, 0-0. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.11.035. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.11.035

Durbach, I. N., Scott, L. D., Nyirenda, J. C., & Silal, S. P. (2013). Operational research(ers) in development: Growing a new generation of operational researchers. Orion, 29(1), -.

Silal, S. P., Barnes, K. I., Kok, G., Mabuza, A., & Little, F. (2013). Exploring the seasonality of reported treated malaria cases in mpumalanga, South Africa. PLoS One, 8(10), 0-0. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0076640. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0076640

Moshabela, M., Schneider, H., Silal, S. P., & Cleary, S. M. (2012). Factors associated with patterns of plural healthcare utilization among patients taking antiretroviral therapy in rural and urban South Africa: a cross-sectional study. BMC Health Services Research, 12(1), -. doi:10.1186/1472-6963-12-182. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-12-182

Silal, S. P., Penn-Kekana, L., Harris, B., Birch, S., & McIntyre, D. E. (2012). Exploring inequalities in access to and use of maternal health services in South Africa. BMC Health Services Research, 12, -. doi:10.1186/1472-6963-12-120. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-12-120

Cleary, S., Silal, S. P., Birch, S., Carrara, H., Pillay-van Wyk, V., Rehle, T., & Schneider, H. (2011). Equity in the use of antiretroviral treatment in the public health care system in urban South Africa. Health Policy, 99(3), -. doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2010.10.016. Full text: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2010.10.016